National Championship Betting: LSU vs. Clemson Odds And Picks
National Championship Betting: LSU vs. Clemson Odds And Picks
LSU Vs. Clemson: Early Odds, The Spread, And The Over
LSU vs Clemson: Updated odds for national championship
LSU vs. Clemson spread, odds, line: Predictions, picks and
LSU vs. Clemson Odds: Opening Line, Over/Under Total for
Vegas odds for Clemson-LSU | TigerNet
Updated National Championship 2020 Odds: LSU vs. Clemson
Clemson vs LSU Spread, Odds, Line, Over/Under & Betting
Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers Odds - Monday January 13 2020
LSU-Clemson spread, total on the move - Las Vegas News
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Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.
Trades: Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4 Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5 Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25 The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6 Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58 Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64 Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93 Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold 1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state. 2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running. 3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it. 4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB. 5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team. 6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him. 7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit. 8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running. 9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start. 10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need. 11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston. 12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick. 13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me. 14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL) I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance. 15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor. 16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though. 17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic. 18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick. 19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right. 20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players. 21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit. 22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks. 23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL) The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building. 24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit. 25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen. 26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills. 27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick. 28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make. 29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick. 30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make. 31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take. 32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.
NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
NCAA Football Week 5 - Analysis, Predictions and Odds
NCAA Football Week 5 - MAC's Analysis, Predictions and Odds 2021 College Football National Championship Odds + Pick Clemson +200 Alabama +400 Georgia +2000 LSU +10000 Notre Dame +4000 Florida +1200 Oklahoma +2800 Texas +4000 Auburn +6600 Texas A&M +5000 (MAC's Power Pick) Miami (FL) +8000 Oklahoma State +10000 MAC's NCAAF Red Alert Action - 10/03 - No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0) When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Spread: Alabama -17 Money Lines: Texas A&M +605 / Alabama -855 Total: 51.5 Texas A&M Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Ainias Smith 1 Rushing: Isaiah Spiller 117 Passing: Kellen Mond 189 Receiving: Caleb Chapman 40 Sacks: Micheal Clemons 1.5 Interceptions: Leon O'Neal Jr. 1 Alabama Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Najee Harris 3 Rushing Najee: Harris 98 Passing: Mac Jones 249 Receiving: Jaylen Waddle 134 Sacks: Labryan Ray 1.0 Interceptions: Thomas Fletcher 0 Quick Trends: Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Aggies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on grass. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Texas A&M busted up Vanderbilt 17-12 last weekend as quarterback Kellen Mond aired it out for the small 189 yards and got himself a touchdown. A&M running back Isaiah Spiller grabbed himself the small 117 rushing yards in the unwatchable low scoring game. Alabama smacked up Missouri 28-19 Bama quarterback Mac Jones passed for 249 yards and put 2 in the end zone, while running back Najee Harris put in his 98 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week both teams meet up for a good ol boys SEC game in Tuscaloosa. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but on the flipside 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Alabama has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Tide can go get it done but reports coming in from our affiliates are ambivalent to give all those points away on the road at best, our consensus is going with Texas A&M to cover the chalk mainly because of the edge at quarterback. MAC's Game Prediction: Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27 Play: Texas A&M +17 10/03 - No. 18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1) When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA TV: ABC Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 Money Lines: Iowa State +210 / Oklahoma -260 Total: 62.5 Quick Trends: Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cyclones are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Sooners are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Sooners Team Leaders: Touchdowns Seth McGowan 2 Rushing Seth McGowan 134 Passing Spencer Rattler 677 Receiving Marvin Mims 111 Sacks DaShaun White 2.5 Interceptions Delarrin Turner-Yell 1 Cyclones Team Leaders: Touchdowns Breece Hall 4 Rushing Breece Hall 257 Passing Brock Purdy 356 Receiving Xavier Hutchinson 69 Sacks JaQuan Bailey 3.5 Interceptions Mike Rose 1 Oklahoma ran through Missouri State 48-0 in their opener, then hit a wall on Saturday with a depressing 38-35 loss against K-State as a insanely obnoxious 28-point favorite. Quarterback Spencer Rattler some how passed for 387 yards with four touchdowns even with 3 costly interceptions. Iowa State laid down against Louisiana Lafayette in their opener, and bumbled a cover against a suspect TCU team, final 37-34 as 3.5-point road favorite they should have had no problem with a soft line like that. Quarterback Brock Purdy got off 211 yards 1 touchdown, running back Breece Hall got 154 yards and 38 attempts and 3 trips to the end zone. The Sooners are paying the books at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall has Vegas building skyscrapers with bettors money, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, I mean these guys are a bunch of bums when it comes to getting the money. Now if you've been putting your action on Iowa State as a underdog you've made some cash, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss, I mean these guys are a golden egg if you play the line right. MAC is setting the standard and putting the business on the table, sharps and early money aren't making a dent in the line because oddsmakers made a tight one this week. MAC's looking at Spencer Rattle as the x factor, if he steps up this could very well be a easy win + cover for the Sooners, Iowa State is getting the 7.5 and MAC smells something fishy about the hook, play the over set at 62.5 up from 61.5 and don't be scared to give the points because Rattler will look like a stud this week against a mediocre Cyclone D. watch "Brock Purdy Lips" gets manhandled by DaShaun White. Iowa State Injury Report - T. Milton WR - Ques Sat - Milton was unavailable for the previous game due to a lower-body injury and it is unknown if he will line up versus Oklahoma on Saturday. R. Hudson OL - Ques Sat - Undisclosed T. Downing OL - Ques Sat - Downing missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday's contest against Oklahoma remains up in the air. MAC's Game Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Iowa State 24 Play: Over 62.5 Play: Oklahoma -7.5 No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0) Auburn made bacon out of the boys down in Kentucky 29-13 last weekend to cash in as a 6.5-point home favorite, big Bo Nix passed for 233 yards with 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and looking like a god damn stud averaging 6.8 rushing yards a game, MAC would let his daughter and mother date a guy like this, and they got wide receiver Seth Williams coming in catching six passes for 112 yards 2 TDs. Georgia looked like decent, getting through Arkansas 37-10 last weekend was impressive but not really, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and surprisingly no picks. Georgia scored 22 third quarter points to take control after going into the half down 7-5, now that could be good football but MAC is saying fluke and calling shenanigan's. When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: ESPN Spread: Georgia -6.5 Money Lines: Auburn +200 / Georgia -250 Total: 45 Auburn Team Leaders - Touchdowns D.J. Williams 1 Rushing Bo Nix 34 Passing Bo Nix 233 Receiving Seth Williams 112 Sacks Daquan Newkirk 1.0 Interceptions Roger McCreary 1 Georgia Team Leaders - Touchdowns Zamir White 1 (MAC's #BumAlert Prospect) Rushing Zamir White 71 Passing Stetson Bennett 211 Receiving Kearis Jackson 62 Sacks Nolan Smith 1.5 Interceptions Richard Lecounte 2 Auburn gets the money early in the season and has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 October games, but be cautious because Bulldogs are money makers too, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Tigers just can't get through Georgia and have sucked against the spread going 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Now MAC would normally stay away from a game like this but it's hard to bet against big Bo Nixon and that up tempo offense. Georgia -6.5 is a suckers bet, take those points and ride Bo's back like the rest of the Tigers! MAC's Game Prediction: Georgia 17 Auburn 27 Play: Auburn +6.5 Play: Under 45.5 (Get That Hook)
Film review: why does Vegas like Jamie Newman's Heisman chances?
If you look at Vegas’ 2020 Heisman odds, the two names at the top of the list need no explanation: Justin Fields (7/2) and Trevor Lawrence (4/1). The third name, however, likely requires a pause from more casual college football fans: Jamie Newman (10/1). Transferring after a strong 2019 showing at Wake Forest, quarterback Jamie Newman has clear hopes of emulating the success of Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, and other recent transfer QBs. So what was it about his 2019 performance, and how that fits into Georgia's new offensive schemes, give Vegas oddsmakers enough confidence in Newman to give him the third best odds of winning college football’s most prestigious individual award? Newman caught my eye last year when I would randomly flip through Saturday noon games, and it was clear to my casual viewership that he was operating at a different level from everyone on his team (except for possibly Sage Surratt). Now that Newman is the presumed starter of a team that fully expects to compete for a Playoff berth, I’ve conducted a deeper dive into Newman, evaluating his strengths, weaknesses, and his projected fit in what Todd Monken’s offense may look like. Specifically, I watched his performances against Utah State, UNC, Boston College, Louisville, Clemson, NC State, and Michigan State: certainly not every 2019 snap, but more than enough to render an informed judgement. Additionally, I’m not projecting any impacts from COVID-19 in this post (i.e. impacts of shortened spring ball to learn the new offense, shortened season, etc.). After watching his performance in those six games, what was my conclusion? TLDR: Newman is a strong armed passer who is a perfect fit for Todd Monken’s Air Raid offensive philosophy, and he’ll likely put up prolific passing numbers. If you’re optimistic in how Monken will utilize Newman’s athleticism, and equally optimistic that Newman can adapt to playing against more talented defenses week-over-week, Newman’s preseason Heisman odds are justified, and he will put himself in Heisman contention early and has an outside shot at following in the footsteps of Mayfield, Murray, and Burrow as transfer QBs turned Heisman winners.
Strengths:
Athleticism
While Georgia has enjoyed a relatively strong run of quarterbacks over the last decade and a half, the Bulldogs have not had a truly mobile quarterback as their full time starter since...DJ Shockley? Fortunately, Newman will change that. Athletically, Newman profiles as a Cam Newton-lite prospect, demonstrating speed and elusiveness required to generate long gains, while possessing the strength to fight for tough yardage. Wake Forest fully utilized Newman’s legs, giving him the ball more than 10 times in over 75% of his starts last season. In three games, he carried it over 20 times. Many of these were short-yardage situation runs, so Newman’s yardage / YPC stat line won’t impress, but clips like the below demonstrate what Georgia can expect:
As shown, Newman has the speed to rip off long, explosive gains, but will also power through defenders. There is some risk with this second strength, as Newman suffered a shoulder injury directly because of dropping his shoulder at the goal line against Louisville. For this reason, Georgia would be wise not to use Newman as heavily as Wake Forest given their other offensive talents, and Monken historically has not used QBs in the running game (more on that later). With that being said, Newman’s athleticism is too strong an attribute to ignore, and if Monken and the Bulldogs are smart, they’ll fully utilize designed QB runs and option plays a core component of their 2020 offense.
Vertical passing threat
Newman’s physical strengths don’t end with his legs, as he possesses a similarly impressive arm. Not only can Newman make every throw and drive the ball downfield, he can do so accurately, with his downfield passing ability being the highlight of the Wake Forest offense. To provide a few examples:
When you watch the above clips, you should be able to notice Newman’s ability to hit receivers in stride and/or place the ball in positions advantageous to the receiver, even at depths of twenty plus yards. Such throws were infrequent in Georgia’s offense in 2019, and while I’d attribute that more to former offensive coordinator James Coley than I would Jake Fromm, Newman should be a marked improvement in this category and projects as the best vertical passer the Bulldogs have had since Stafford. I’ll discuss more below, but Monken’s Air Raid background pairs perfectly with Newman’s arm talent, and I fully anticipate more highlight throws like the above in Athens this season.
Keeps the chains moving
Newman’s isn’t just your stereotypical talented, athletic QB prospect: he’s a fully developed passer. Specifically, Newman already processes at a high level and possesses the short-yardage and intermediate accuracy required to keep the chains moving on crucial downs. First, Newman was equally accurate in short-yardage and intermediate areas as he was when attempting deep passes. As Newman transitions to facing tighter coverage on a weekly basis than he did in the ACC, this skill should translate and enable him to keep the ball-moving without being overly reliant on his legs or the vertical passing game. A couple of examples:
Second, while I’ll highlight how this can be a negative at times, Newman demonstrated an almost Stoic presence on the field, with no noticeable drop off in pressure situations. On this first clip against Louisville, Newman is facing third and long with his team trailing early. The defense only rushes three, so Newman uses the provided time to scan through his reads before finding a receiver downfield and throwing a dagger to pick up the first down and moving the chains. On this second clip against Michigan State, Newman faces pressure up the middle, stands in the pocket and takes a hit from two different players as he releases the ball, finding his tight end wide open downfield for a touchdown. As I’ll show below, Newman too often stood in the pocket when facing pressure, but the silver lining is when doing so, Newman kept his eyes downfield and could generate plays if defenses generated pressure at the expense of leaving holes in coverage.
Weaknesses:
Despite athleticism, statue-esque in the pocket
While many athletic college quarterbacks are often knocked for being too quick to leave the pocket, Newman has the opposite problem: under pressure, he’s Stoic, at times to a fault. If Georgia fans were hoping that their new athletic quarterback would reverse their trend of statue-esque signal callers, they’ll likely be disappointed. For comparison, see the below clips of current college quarterbacks using their legs to escape pressure, extend the play, and make a significant downfield passing play:
While Newman is more athletic than any of the quarterbacks shown above, when you watch Newman’s film, you’ll be hard pressed to find anything comparable. The above plays are highlights for their respective quarterbacks, yet they’re within the realm of what should be expected from an athletic, talented quarterback like Newman. Despite his athleticism, once he drops back, Newman rarely ever uses his legs to effectively extend plays or make those “something-out-of-nothing” plays we’ve seen from great college QBs over the past decade. In particular, Newman displayed an odd habit of developing cement feet when facing pressure from the interior. When pressured from the edge, he occasionally scrambled, but when the pressure came up the middle via blitzing linebackers or defensive lineman driving his blocker backwards, he almost always refused to move, either throwing the ball away or simply accepting an avoidable hit. A few examples:
Again, compare how Newman reacted to pressure (not moving, occasionally throwing the ball away) to how other top-level college quarterbacks responded (rolling to their left or right, keeping their eyes downfield, completing the pass). I’m not exactly sure why Newman has this problem. He’s obviously highly athletic, so that’s not the limiting factor. It may be general poor pocket awareness, but given that the issue is particularly noticeable when the pressure is coming right up the middle, in full view, it almost seems that Newman is intentionally choosing to stand tall and take the hit. Further complicating the issue is that in the bowl game against Michigan State, Newman finally did begin to use his feet to extend plays in a few situations, implying that he’s not locked into these Stoic, statue-esque dropbacks. This is pure speculation on my part, but I almost wonder if Newman was coached to stay in the pocket to the point of detriment, and with a new coaching staff, this can be corrected. Either way, what does Newman’s statue-esque dropbacks mean for Georgia offensively? The Bulldogs will be replacing multiple starters on the offensive line, and will face off against multiple defenses filled with four and five star pass rushers. It’s inevitable that Newman will be pressured and need to extend plays, but it’s unclear whether he’ll actually do so, or if he’ll continue to refuse to leave the pocket and take avoidable, drive-killing hits and sacks.
Fuck it, I’m going deep
Similar to how Newman’s Stoic pocket presence is both a strength (when he gets the ball away for a completion despite pressure) and a weakness (when he could extend a play but chooses not to), Newman’s frequent downfield lobs will be a strength (when his receiver beats his man) and a weakness (when there’s another defender in the area, or the corner is able to get his head around and make a play on the ball). Newman will be accompanied by more offensive talent than he had in Winston-Salem, but he'll equally be facing off against better defenders and defensive coordinators on a weekly basis in the SEC. Newman is a risk-taker who trusts his receivers to make plays on the ball, and by competing against more talented defenses, those risks are magnified. Newman’s tape versus Clemson best exemplifies some of the issues he’ll encounter facing off against more talented secondaries. In this first clip, Newman fakes the screen and clearly locks onto a receiver running deep. Unfortunately for Newman, a Clemson defender is playing underneath and makes an easy interception. In this second clip, Newman throws his trademark one-on-one deep lob. Unfortunately again, Newman is targeting an NFL-caliber cornerback in AJ Terrell. Unlike many of the cornerbacks he faced, Terrell has the awareness to get his head around and makes a play on a slightly underthrown ball. Facing off against the likes of Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II, Florida’s Marco Wilson, South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn, and possibly LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., Newman will have to adapt to corners playing more like AJ Terrell did in the clip above than some of the other corners featured in his other highlights above. Given Monken’s offensive philosophy and Newman’s passing habits, Bulldog fans should expect a few frustrating, Brett Favre-esque “fuck it, I’m going deep” interceptions, particularly early on as Newman learns the skill level of the defensive backs he’s targeting. Whether this tendency will be just an early season speed bump or a debilitating factor will be seen.
Projected Fit
The immediate good news is that Newman’s strong arm and ability to place the ball downfield is a perfect fit for Monken’s Air Raid background. While I don’t necessarily believe we’ll be seeing Georgia going full Air Raid given how their offensive roster is structured and Smart’s conservative nature, Monken previously summarized his offensive philosophy, and it’s a perfect fit for Newman’s strengths, specifically his ability to drive the ball downfield with accuracy:
“I’ve always thought, we don’t need more 5-yard plays. Who needs more 5-yard plays? How can we be explosive? That’s what the game is about, man. Big plays. I like big plays. So how do we not figure out ways to get explosive plays? That’s fun. That’s fun to me in football.”
In 2019, Newman amassed 2868 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns (missing one start vs Florida State). For comparison, see the chart below showing starting QBs under Monken over the last five seasons. Simply put, quarterbacks rack up yardage under Monken, and for Newman, a passing stat line similar to Mullens last year with Monken is a realistic outcome.
Year
Team
QB(s)
Passing yards
Passing TDs
2015
Southern Miss
Nick Mullens
4476
38
2016
Tampa Bay (NFL)
Jameis Winston
4090
28
2017
Tampa Bay (NFL)
Jameis Winston / Ryan Fitzpatrick
4607
26
2018
Tampa Bay (NFL)
5358
36
2019
Cleveland (NFL)
Baker Mayfield
3827
22
What’s unclear is how Monken intends to use Newton’s athleticism. Historically, Monken has not used quarterback runs as any significant element of his offense. Only J.W. Walsh, who Monken coached as Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator in 2012, had any meaningful rushing contribution from the QB position under Monken, accumulating 290 yards and 7 touchdowns that year. The next best rushing performance by a QB under Monken was Jameis Winston’s 281 yards and one touchdown in 2018. Overall, neither stat line compare to what we've seen from athletic quarterbacks at the collegiate level, and would be disappointing numbers for an athlete of Newman's pedigree. The silver lining is that Monken is at least saying the right things since arriving in Athens, stating that he’s more focused on adapting to his players rather than dogmatic application of a specific style. Newman’s athleticism supports his usage in designed QB runs and read option packages. While Monken does not have a history of using designed QB runs in his offense, if he really intends to adapt to his players, that will require such runs becoming an offensive staple.
Summary
Overall, Georgia should be extremely excited in Newman’s arrival. He is the most physically talented starter they have had since Matthew Stafford, with the added strength of being highly athletic. For Bulldog fans who still rue Justin Fields’ transfer, Newman is an equally talented and similarly built quarterback. Specifically, Newman’s strong arm and ability to place the ball wherever needed means Georgia should be able to maintain the offensive efficiency enjoyed with Jake Fromm, while adding a true vertical passing element to their passing game. Given Monken’s Air Raid background, I fully expect Newman to rack up passing yardage and put up prolific numbers over the course of the season. Newman’s legs will add another new and dynamic tool to the Bulldog offense: exactly how Monken will use this tool is unclear, as historically QB runs have not been a feature of his offense. At the same time Newman displayed a frustrating tendency to never leave the pocket on designed passing plays, and he’ll take more hits than necessary, which could result in closer games or even potentially game-altering sacks. Newman also places a lot of trust in his deep ball placement and the ability of his receivers to win their matchup: against more talented SEC defensive backs, some of those plays may switch from receptions to incompletions or interceptions. Newman projects as an All-SEC caliber quarterback, and if he can avoid unnecessary sacks and interceptions, he should fully be capable of leading the Bulldogs to Playoff contention. Does he have what it takes to become a true Heisman contender? Monken’s Air Raid offense is designed and has a history of putting up significant yardage and scoring points: given Nick Mullens’ success under Monken at Southern Miss, if Newman can simply match that statistical output, that should be sufficient to put him in contention: eclipsing 4000 yards, as Mullens’ did his junior year, is mark only four SEC quarterbacks have ever crossed. Additionally, Newman will be playing for a clear top ten (likely top five) team that will demand national media attention for the duration of the season. The Bulldogs’ have games scheduled against Alabama, Auburn, Florida, all of which will likely be at least Top 25 matchups, if not Top 10 matchups, and any of those games may end up as the marquee matchup of their weekend. Should Georgia beat out Florida (and less likely, Tennessee) for the SEC East title, Newman will be provided another significant platform via the SEC Championship Game to demonstrate his worthiness. All in all, even in the best case scenario for Newman, the odds are stacked against him winning the Heisman. Even so, he has a clear case to quickly find himself in contention: he’s a physically gifted quarterback who has already demonstrated his ability to operate at a high level; he’ll be operating in an offense designed to rack up yardage and scoring opportunities; he’ll be playing for an elite team that will demand national attention throughout the season and will have multiple high-visibility matchups to build his case in front of national audiences. While Lawrence and Fields will rightfully dominate preseason discussions, Vegas currently has Newman with the third-best odds (10/1) to win the award, and when you consider the above, that feels right.
Looking to bet up to 5 oz generic per game. I only bet with established bugs. First Half Bets Baylor vs. Oklahoma -5.5, I want Baylor +5.5 Hawaii vs. Boise State -7.5, I want Hawaii +7.5 u/jgriddler 2oz ❌ Georgia vs. Lsu -4, I want Lsu -4u/aproachablelion 5oz ✅ Virginia vs. Clemson -17, I want Virginia +17 Monmouth vs. James Madison -17.5, I want Monmouth +17.5 Full Game Wisconsin vs. Ohio State -16.5, I want Wisconsin +16u/silentsnipe21 3oz u/jgriddler 2oz ✅ Virginia vs. Clemson -28.5, I want Virginia +28.5 Baylor vs. Oklahoma O/U 65, I want the over Georgia vs. Lsu O/U 57, I want the underu/Williambott 6oz ✅ Money line Virginia vs. Clemson My 3ozs vs. your 48ozs u/williambott❌ Nicholls State vs. North Dakota State My 3ozs vs. your 60ozs u/williambott ❌
If you have seen any of my previous posts, I will be predicting the final score of every bowl game this year using a method that I made up based on S&P+. I will be logging all of my predictions, as well as the result of those predictions, here. Click the link of each bowl to see the detailed breakdown of how I got to my prediction. Disclaimer: All odds are the opening odds according to OddsShark. I will not be using the updated odds. My reason for this is that I will be using information that was freely available when the betting lines opened, and therefore any prediction I make today, tomorrow, next week, etc. would be the same as if I had made the prediction the day the odds opened. I am simply spreading out my predictions because it will take me 10+ hours to do all of them, and I am not going to sit down and do them all at once. I will post each prediction the day before each bowl.
It’s that time of week again for our weekly previews! As always we first have to crown a winner for last weeks predictions. There were two people who tied at guesses with both having a combined difference of 11 each, so I flipped a coin. Heads u/patsey wins tails u/DuragofJupiter.... And it lands on tails! So far this season the score is Tennessee 1, South Carolina 1, Georgia 1.
Oh buddy do we have a possible stinker brewing this Saturday in Gainesville, as South Carolina (5-3, 4-3) and Florida (6-3, 4-3) will be battling it out to see who finishes 3rd in the SEC East. LOL. South Carolina managed to win a nail biter of a game against Ole Miss this past weekend, in a game where both teams were eager to prove they had the worst defense in the SEC. South Carolina came in at a close second, and if you’re Dan Mullen and the Gators, you got to be feeling good about your chances against this Gamecock defense. He might be slightly worried about this South Carolina offense. Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks were clicking against the Rebels, and….. lolol jk! I’m not falling for this trap again. I have seen this story multiple times. I know the dialogue by heart. This is how Jake Bentley gets you. This is how he has managed to keep his job from Michael Scarnnecchia (besides the fact that he’s actually not good). He gets a good game against a hurt or bad defense, and people hop on the bandwagon. Forgetting why people booed him in the first place. Not me. Joblanco40 remembers. While this is may seem like a meaningless game for 3rdplace in the east, this is a huge game for South Caroline and Coach Boom Muschamp. Getting this 6th win will go a long way on getting 8 wins on the season before heading to a bowl game, and trying to get that 9th win. It goes a long way in how Will Muschamp will be perceived around South Carolina, and ultimately his job security with the team. It will go a long way for Jake Bentley, in being remembered as a winner when his career is over at USC. It will also give Muschamp his biggest win as Gamecocks head coach, which isn’t really saying much but it’s a step in the right direction. Knowing just how big of a game this is for the Gamecocks is why I am fading them HAAAARDDDDD. Jake Bentley away from home? In a big game? Against a good defense? With his own defense playing like Ole Miss’s defense? Yeah, that’ll be a no from dog. Jake Bentley in big games is just atrocious. He isn’t just bad; he’s at his worst at the very beginning of the game. Look at games against Clemson and Georgia. Look at games against Kentucky. Hell, even look at the game against Florida last year! The man turns into a mouse when the bright lights hit him, and the dude gets rattled after mistakes. Which he makes plenty. While Florida may be utter poopoo with Franks at quarterback on offense, I expect them to run it down the Gamecocks throat with Perine and Scarlett. I think their loss against Missouri at home was just a side effect of that emotional loss against Georgia, and now they’re just pissed off. That defense is legit and with the Gamecocks having so many injuries on the Oline, I expect Jake Bentley to get hit a lot. Even if Bentley doesn’t get sacked often, he will be pressured and will be forced to make mistakes. Give me Florida at home with the 6.5 spread, and the UNDER at 54 points. Florida 22 South Carolina 10
This week showcases a Florida team that is struggling on offense to find its identity, and has seemingly given up completely on the season altogether. While the Gamecocks of South Carolina may find a little extra motivation for this matchup, with the homecoming of former Gator coach Will Muschamp. This South Carolina team walks into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with a similar feeling to that of Missouri; a team that while middling in the SEC has a solid enough passing attack with talented receivers to give the Gator defense pause. Deebo Samuel also recorded a special team touchdown for the Gamecocks in their win over Ole Miss last weekend. While Florida is always used to having special talent in the swamp, having skilled players on the other side of the ball for once seems to be giving the Gators fits. However, re- building a program is always a tough task, and that is magnified one hundred times in a place like The Swamp. South Carolina ranks 75th in the country in total defense, and comes off a game giving up 44 point to a potent Ole Miss attack. However, USC did just enough to outscore Ole Miss and take home the W which should give the Gators some things to think about going in to this game. While I do think this Florida team will have more “juice” about it than last week. The biggest question looming on everyone’s mind going into this week is who will be the QB moving forward for the Gators? Felipe Franks has been miserable in his last two performances, and QB Kyle Trask suffered a season ending foot injury in practice this week. It will be interesting to see how the Gators handle the QB situation moving forward. Emory Jones has only played in two games this season, so a redshirt is still on the table, and Mullen not be willing to pull that just yet. However, if Franks continues to be as bad as he has been, we might see more of the talented Freshman than we have seen all year. Florida does not get it done this week with a sputtering offense and an uninspired performance. South Carolina 24-17 Florida
Hey SEC fans, can you find your team? Vanderbilt. Since we last checked in with each other, Vandy got an SEC win on the road (against coughArkansas) and enjoyed a bye week where they didn’t have to face yet another top-15 team. OC Andy Ludwig was praised not being so conservative and opening up the playbook against Arkansas. Vanderbilt must win two of the next three games to go bowling. Of the remaining games (Mizzurah, Ole Miss, Tennessee), Saturday’s game against Mizzurah appears to be the most difficult. Vandy’s chances will likely depend on whether Ludwig stays creative with the playcalling or reverts to his old, predictable form. Mizzurah. Mizzurah beat Florida. So, they have that going for them, which is nice. They’ve looked good lately, even as they fell to Kentucky on the last play of the game. Prediction. Look for a high-scoring game. Mizzurah 35, Vanderbilt 21. I hope my ‘Dores prove me wrong. Anchor Down!
So after two reviews, I have picked the wrong team to win, although Mizzou beat should have beat Kentucky. Coming off that disappointing loss, I thought they would just play out the season. Well, they kicked Florida’s ass and dominated in all areas. It probably saved Coach Barry Odom’s job and Mizzou should win their remaining 3 games. And get to a bowl game closer to New Year’s Day. It still sickens me that we blew the South Carolina and Kentucky games or else we would be a top 15 team now, considering Mizzou has the 4th toughest schedule in the NCAA. Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt, although they did play close against Notre Dame and Kentucky, but Drew Lock should have a field day against this defense, even with the possibility of stud TE Albert Okwuegbunam out and Kendall Blanton, also a TE, out. Albert O has been a big target for Lock, leading the team with 43 receptions. Mizzou has been inserting a converted D Lineman and OT in their place, but even so, with a Vandy defense ranked 79th in the nation and 99th against the run, Mizzou probably is not too concerned. Mizzou has a great and underappreciated stable of running backs to go with the passing game. Vanderbilt is no pushover regardless. They are still fighting for bowl eligibility and need 2 wins in their final 3 games to get there. Luckily, 2 of those teams are Old Miss and Tennessee. They have a strong running back in transfer Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and QB yle Shurmur – WR Kalija Lipscomb are a strong combo. But Mizzou’s defense has stepped up in their last few games and they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. The front line especially should dominate. This is Vandy Coach Derek Mason’s 5th year, and he has yet to post a winning season, so he is probably coaching for his job as well. The one season he took them to a bowl game, they were 6-6 and lost. Kansas fired their coach last week, although he is finishing the season. Those have to be 2 of the toughest jobs in the Power 5 conferences, although rumors abound that Les Miles is the leading candidate for the KU job. Coach Miles should note that KU plays on FieldTurf. Anyway, back to the game, I see a cakewalk from a newly confident Mizzou team that knows not to take anything for granted after near misses twice this season. Mizzou 38 Vanderbilt 20
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M 12:00 CBS
Ole Miss preview by Rebel228 of
Ole Miss travels to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies. It should be an exciting game, but both teams are so equally matched it’s a tough one to call. Ole Miss comes in at 5-4(1-4), while A&M also comes in at 5-4(3-3). Texas A&M is fresh off a heartbreaking loss at Auburn by 4 points. Ole Miss kept up with South Carolina but fell short in their high-scoring, 92 point total game. Ole Miss is still struggling to score points in the red zone, despite putting up video game numbers almost every week. What scares me the most is that Ole Miss doesn’t keep the ball in their possession very much. You can’t score points when you don’t have the ball and A&M averages 35 minutes possession per game. A&M will blast through the Ole Miss atrocious defense and make some huge 3rd down plays. This SEC dogfight will be important for both programs. A&M is one win away from bowl eligibility (Hellooo TaxSlayer Bowl) and Ole Miss is trying to remain relevant and prove to the nation that they can still compete in the West. I wouldn’t touch this game with a 39 foot pole but I like Texas A&M to win straight up and Ole Miss to score enough points to cover. It should be a fun game to watch. Texas A&M 35 – Ole Miss 24
Well shit. Guess this week’s preview is going to look a little different. Also, in case you can’t already tell, the following preview contains a lot of foul language. Just thought I’d warn you.
HOWDY!
You know, I should’ve fucking expected the Aggies to blow that lead against Auburn. It’s the month of November after all, which means it is time once again for the Aggies to raise the bar in teams torturing their own fanbase. Shit, we even have a term for it around here called Battered Aggie Syndrome. If I told you after the first 4 weeks of the season that A&M and Ole Miss would have the same record going into their Week 11 game, you would’ve laughed your fucking ass off. Not because of how ridiculous that seemed, but because of how fucking typical that would be for the Aggies to collapse once SEC play started. Does anyone here remember how much promise this team had? Hell, about a month ago we beat a then #13 Kentucky at home in overtime to move to 4-2. The hype train was in full fucking speed. And if it wasn’t after that game, it sure was after the South Carolina game, even though we looked ugly as fuck for a large portion of that game. But that’s the thing. You can get away with a whole lot as long as you keep winning football games. The second that stops happening, the flaws that we all knew this team had were going to be exposed in some of the most hideous ways imaginable. We all knew this offensive line was not going to be good, but I wonder if Mond would get some more time in the pocket if we put some traffic barrels on the offensive line instead. Speaking of Kellen Mond, what in the fuck happened to the Kellen Mond we saw for the first month of the season? I’m not calling for Mond to be benched (he won this job fair and square and I feel as though we desperately need his mobility), but we’ve seen him play better against tougher competition. The defensive backs treat 3rd and long situations as an invitation to give opposing WR’s enough space that they could start putting up a fucking house on the land. And don’t even get me started on their ability to make a tackle. The only player on this secondary that I trust to make a tackle is Donovan Wilson, but half the time he gets called for fucking targeting. And, to add to the list of problems this team is facing, our WR group is dropping, both in terms of catching the fucking ball and getting injured. Okay, now that I got that out of my system, let’s actually talk about Ole Miss. Trayveon Williams gets a lot of attention for being near or at the top for most statistical categories for running backs. But Scottie Phillips is practically even with Williams at this point of the season, yet I haven’t heard that much about him. I’m looking forward to see what might happen on Saturday between these two. Jordan Ta’amu (Which I know how to spell because it’s just TAMU with an extra a thrown in) has apparently been struggling this year so far, but that won’t be a problem considering the Aggie secondary is making it a habit to revive the seasons of struggling QB’s (Remember kids, if it happens twice, it’s a coincidence. If it happens 3 times, it’s an Aggie tradition). And on this week’s edition of “Which SEC defensive end will kill Kellen Mond this week?”, we get to see how Qaadir Sheppard lines up against 5 turnstiles that weigh over 300 pounds. FINAL WORDS A&M is favored by 11.5 last time I checked but remember that it’s an SEC game being played in Kyle Field in November. I desperately, and I mean DESPERATELY hope that the Aggies can rebound in their first home game in over a month (thanks a lot, NCAA/SEC scheduling). I hope the 11am kickoff time makes every fan in attendance just a little more cranky than usual, leading to the loudest that Kyle Field has been since the Clemson game. This team needs all the help it can get. Texas A&M 28 - Ole Miss 27 This team doesn’t deserve hashtags this week, but still, ######BTHOolemiss
Tennessee has played Kentucky more than any other team in history. This will be their 114th matchup with Tennessee leading the series 79-25-9. Kentucky is favored by 3 but they haven’t won in Knoxville since 1984 and they’ve only beaten the Vols twice since that year. They are seeking their first back-to-back victories over the Vols since 1976-77. Will any of that matter Saturday when the Wildcats, behind Benny Snell and Josh Allen roll into town? Since the win over Auburn, Tennessee has looked pretty lackluster, only beating Charlotte at home last week 14-3. Kentucky had a letdown last week, giving up 331 yards on the ground to Georgia and 444 yards overall in a 34-17 loss. Kentucky’s offense has struggled recently and they haven’t scored more than 20 points in their last 4 games. Tennessee has really only had success throwing the ball using screen passes and short passes because their offensive line can’t provide enough time for QB Jarrett Guarantano to throw deep. Twenty five percent of Tennessee’s rush attempts don’t even make it past the line of scrimmage. Running the ball, which used to be the Vols bread and butter, has been a struggle and we all know why: the lineman are undersized and overmatched. If I was making a game plan for the Vols, I think it would be pretty simple. Defense: Load the box and try to stop Benny Snell. Make Terry Wilson beat you with his arm. He was 23 for 29 for 226 yards and 1 TD against Georgia. Those stats are manageable for the Vols. Gang tackle Snell when he does get the ball and keep him from breaking off big runs. Offense: The offensive game plan will be much harder because Kentucky’s talented defense ranks 16th in the nation. The first priority is mitigating Josh Allen and keeping him from being an impact player. Screen passes and misdirection could help with that, but that’s already a big part of the offense. The offensive line will have to play well but I feel like I say that every game. They’ll need their best game because Kentucky’s defense is loaded. Tennessee needs to win 2 out of the next 3 to make a bowl game and that’s a tall order. They shouldn’t need any extra motivation to get up for this game. If they play inspired football and Kentucky has a let down game due to losing a chance to go to Atlanta that could prove to be the right combination for Tennessee to get a win. Unfortunately I don’t think the offensive line is up to the challenge and I think Kentucky will get the victory. Kentucky 17 – Tennesee 10
In a matchup that needs no introduction; David, meet Goliath. Except maybe in this story, David doesn’t win… The reputation of Alabama precedes them in any matchup. Be it Vegas odds makers, media pundits, or simply Paul Finebaum calling Nick Fitzgerald to talk about the opposing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, only. There is no getting around the fact that Alabama is playing some of the best college football many people alive today have seen. There is no getting around the prolific arm of Tua, or the front seven protecting him, and the skill of his receivers is just icing on the cake (because let’s be real, Tua could throw completions to a receiver with no hands, he’s that accurate). All that aside, let’s talk the history. No one is giving Mississippi state much of a chance, for which I cannot blame them, but when has the biggest upset ever been expected? Who said before Appalachian State played Michigan in Ann Arbor in 2007 that the Mountaineers would be able to beat the 33-point home favorites in front of a crowd of 108,000? Who said that in the same year Stanford, another underdog on the road, would upset USC? Keep in mind this was a 41 point spread. The largest upset (by odds makers) in the history of college football at the time. My point being, is that everyone saying it’s impossible should look in the history books at all the Davids that have come before Mississippi State and realize that while improbable, it is far from impossible. I am not saying for MSU fans to go into Bryant-Denny and expect a victory. All I am saying is that when hope meets faith, and chance rewards it; nothing feels better than being the victor. Alabama has been putting up video game numbers against every opponent they have played, to the tune of 500+ yards of offense per game. They can beat you in the air, on the ground, and when at home it’ll be in your head too. Make no mistake, this team is something to behold. Mississippi State though, has had one of the best defenses in the nation to keep pretty much every game close. When a defense gives an offense as many chances for the offense to succeed as this one does, all it takes is an offensive execution of any kind to put up points even against Bama. Fortunately for State, the offense has been rolling again the past couple weeks, but against teams that aren’t Bama, so it may not matter much in the end. I believe I speak for anyone who roots for the Davids in football (or life in general) when I say, “Just how fun would it be to see this upset?” Alabama 20 – Miss State 17
Alabama preview by dcspringer of
Alabama comes off what might be the single most impressive win in all of college football this year. Shutting out LSU in a night game is impressive as it is. But gaining close to 600 yards of offense on THAT LSU defense in absurd. It shows that Alabama, who felt like it had times where it left points on the field, is clearly the class of the field this year in CFB, with Clemson close behind. Winning a big, emotional game on the road is a recipe for disaster on the following weekend for most teams. But Alabama is not most teams. And Nick Saban is not most coaches. Nick Saban showed a different side after the win; looser, freer, smiling more, hugging more. It was odd to see the HC of Alabama so loose, but clearly, he was enjoying how his team won. This week presents a large challenge to the Tide, but it is a challenge they face every year right after the LSU game. Since Saban took over at Bama, the Tide is 10-1 against MSST, winning by an average of score of 31-9. In the lone loss, Bama lost in Starkville 17-12 in Saban’s first year. This MSST present a challenge for the Tide though, as they rank 6 th in the country in total defense. LSU was in the top 25 in total defense before they played Bama, but have since dropped heavily in that category. MSST gives up 279 yards per game, and averages gaining 417 yards per game, which is 55th in FBS. Alabama remains 6th in the country in total defense, and 1st in total offense. MSST has their work cut out for them this week, but CAN pull off the upset (even though they won’t). MSST needs to eliminate the fast start by Bama and keep the game close in the second half. If MSST’s defense can show up against the Tide, Nick Fitzgerald can give the Tide issues, as we have all seen with running QB’s before against the Tide defense. Just this year, Kellen Mond for Texas A&M gave the Tide defense issues with his legs. However, Fitzgerald must be able to beat the Tide with his arm too to open up rushing lanes and make plays with his legs. His stats are similar to those of Joe Burrow going into the Alabama-LSU game: a 50% completion rate, 10 TD, and 7 INT. Those stats will not get it done in the air against the 300 pound bar of soap Quinnen Williams and co. Expect Fitzgerald to make a few plays with his legs, but MSST won’t be able to test the Tide later in the second half. Alabama starts fast and finishes strong with a rushing attack that has gotten better as the year has progressed. The defense is showing its vintage self, and the offense continues to hum at a school record blistering pace. Alabama rarely struggles with MSST in Tuscaloosa, save for the Prescott year in 2014, and will dispatch Fitzgerald and co. Alabama 52 – Mississippi State 17
Following a controlled 34-17 victory over the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington last weekend, the SEC East champion and fifth ranked Georgia Bulldogs return home after 3 games outside the friendly confines of Sanford Stadium to host the 24th ranked Auburn Tigers saturday evening. While this game has no effect on the conference title picture, since Alabama has already won the SEC West, this week’s contest will surely not lack in intensity, as the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry is always an intense matchup. In order for the Bulldogs to continue their winning ways, the ‘Dawgs will need continue to play clean and (mostly) mistake free football against the Plainsmen, as Auburn is always a dangerous and unpredictable opponent, especially during a down year. This year, Auburn heads into DSOR with their spirits lifted by an “upset” victory against Texas A&M, and they’ll want to extract some level of revenge for their 28-7 loss against UGA in last years SEC Championship game. Offensively, Georgia will need to continue their recently excellent play, as much like LSU, Florida, and UK, Auburn boasts one of the nation’s top defenses. The Tigers are ranked 10th in Defensive S&P+, and they are equally good against both the run and the pass, as they rank 21st in S&P+ in both categories. Auburn’s defense is led by a truly ferocious defensive line, led by DT Derrick Brown and DE Nick Coe, both of whom had big plays against the Aggies last week. Behind the D-Line, Auburn’s LB corps is also quite strong, and senior MLB Deshaun Davis leads the Tigers in tackles and run stuffs, with 62.5 and 20 respectively. While the Tiger secondary is not as dominant as their front 7, they still have great athleticism in the back 4 and Georgia receivers will likely have few opportunities in open space. Auburn is also excellent in scoring situations, as they only allow 3.22 points per scoring opportunity, good for fourth in the nation. In short, the Tigers’ defense is both fast and nasty, and Auburn DC Kevin Steele will surely have his charges ready to go on Saturday. However, despite the talent on the Auburn defense, Georgia eviscerated an even better defense just last week on the road in Lexington to the tune of 331 rushing yards. Both Elijah Holyfield and Deandre Swift ran for over 100 yards, and Swift scored two touchdowns, the second of which was reminiscent to his game-sealing jaunt against the Plainsmen in the last meeting between the two rivals. While it is unreasonable to expect another performance like that against the Tigers, UGA’s running game has started to look like yet another championship quality unit in Athens. With the success of the running game, Jake Fromm was not asked to do very much against Kentucky, as he only threw the ball 20 times for 113 yards and a touchdown. However, I’d expect him to have an expanded role this weekend, as Auburn will probably pose more of an offensive threat than the Wildcats did and the ‘Dawgs will need to score more. To that end, I’d expect him to throw somewhere between 23-30 passes, including a couple of play-action deep shots to Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley. An expanded passing game will also help the running game, as it will help force Auburn to keep their safeties deep, allowing more space for Swift and Holyfield to gash the Tiger defense. An improved passing game should also help the offensive line, as they’d then be working against a front seven that’s on its heels, instead of one that’s firing downhill to stop the run. On the defensive side of the ball, the Junkyard Dawgs should have a much easier matchup than their teammates on the other side of the ball, as the Auburn offense is fairly average, despite Gus Malzahn’s reputation as an offensive guru. The Tigers rank 57th in Offensive S&P+, despite their uncharacteristic struggles on the ground, because Jarrett Stidham and the passing game have managed to connect on enough plays to keep the offense respectable. Auburn currently ranks 97th in rushing S&P+ and they have struggled to consistently create room for their backs, as they are ranked 96th in marginal efficiency. Furthermore, the Tigers’ struggles to create consistent push for their backs has hamstrung them on short third downs, as they are ranked 111th in third and short success rate, which is plainly horrible. Clearly, the loss of bellcow tailback Kerryon Johnson and much of last year’s road-grading offensive line has really hurt the Plainsmen and forced them to rely on Jarrett Stidham and the passing game. However, all things considered, Stidham has played fairly well this season, despite the drop in most of his stats. The Tigers’ signal caller completes 60.6 percent of his passes with an ANY/A of 7.5, and he’s thrown for 10 TD’s to only four interceptions. Stidham has also run for 2 touchdowns this season, though he’s not exactly an extremely threatening runner. Stidham’s receiving corps is talented, if inconsistent, and four of Auburn’s top receivers are at least six feet and are therefore a threat on jump balls, while the remaining member of that quintet, the 5’9 Ryan Davis, is their best possession option, as he boasts a 79.6 percent catch rate. Stidham and the passing game can be dangerous, but he’ll be forced to throw often at a hungry Georgia secondary if Auburn can’t establish the run, which seems fairly likely. Earlier this season, the Dawgs had been exposed a bit against opponent rushing attacks, as the Bulldogs’ D-Line failed to consistently get a push, which consequently exposed tackling issues among the Bulldogs’ back seven. However, UGA was far better against Kentucky than they had been earlier in the season, and the Junkyard Dawgs held Benny Snell and the Wildcats to only 84 yards on 35 carries. If the Dawgs can maintain that level of play against Auburn, they should easily contain the Tigers’ ground game, which would both force Stidham to test the Georgia secondary in clear passing situations and would expose an inexperienced Auburn O-Line to a rapidly improving Georgia pass rush. While Auburn has underperformed somewhat this season, last week’s victory over Texas A&M had to lift the spirits of not only the Auburn faithful, but also those of embattled head coach Gus Malzahn. Unfortunately for Malzahn and his charges, I’d expect things to feel a bit different next week, as Georgia should handle the Tigers. While Auburn’s defense is excellent, Georgia’s offense is just as good, and the Dawgs’ defense matches up well with the Auburn offense. I’d predict a controlled victory for UGA, while Malzahn’s seat gets even hotter before their likely demolition at the hands of Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl. Georgia 31 – Auburn 13
Off the heels of a much needed bye-week, The 2-7 (0-5) Razorbacks will face the 7-2 (4-2) LSU Tigers Saturday night in Fayetteville, Arkansas. The Tigers are coming off of a disappointing performance last Saturday night in Death Valley, as they were outperformed and dominated by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Looking at the schedule, the Tigers were supposedly College Football nation’s best chance to see an upset of the #1 Tide, but Tua Tagoilivoa coupled with the Tigers bearish offensive effort quickly proved that hope to be all for naught. The Tigers were unable to enter the red zone until the 3rd quarter, and had trouble sustaining drives all night long. This is more a reflection of Alabama’s utter dominance of the college football landscape at this moment in time rather than LSU’s ineptitude. LSU is a great team, and they have a chance to beat 99% of the teams out there on any given Saturday. With the hype of a #1 vs. #3 ranked matchup, kickoff at night in Death Valley, multiple future 1st round draft picks on each team, and a celebrity laden sideline soaking up the atmosphere of Baton Rouge on game day, we collectively assumed this would be a competitive affair. But for everyone not cheering on the Tide, this past Saturday was seen as a huge letdown. Speaking of letdowns, the other team in this week’s matchup is the Arkansas Razorbacks. 2018 has been a struggle to say the least and there have been plenty of low moments. It is understood that new coach Chad Morris needs time to implement his system and recruit his players, but Razorback Nation is challenged to stay engaged this season after disappointing results week after week. When this type of season becomes reality, a diehard fan has to find positivity in the small victories. Fans can see a shimmer of hope for the future Razorbacks if they take a look at our #12 ranked 2019 recruiting class, the play of Rakeem Boyd (when he is healthy), the potential courting of Kelly Bryant, and the emergence of playmaking TE Cheyenne O’Grady. The successes have been few and far between this season, but there are small lights in the periphery that all hope is not lost. As the Hogs are no longer bowl eligible after the 45-31 loss to Vanderbilt at home, Hog fans can expect younger players to see the field and a mixup on all levels of personnel. Chad looks to prepare for the future and find out who on the Hog roster is dedicated to building a successful program for the coming seasons. KEY MATCHUP LSU QB Joe Burrow vs. Hogs D As inconsistent as the Hogs D has been, the same can be said about Joe Burrow. He threw slants and outs all night against Bama but was unable to move the chains on 3rd and long, once again no small feat when you have 4 future NFL DL’s sacking you every other play. If the Hog secondary and DL pressure can make LSU one dimensional, the Hogs will have a chance. If Joe Burrow gets going and leads multiple 9+ play drives, the Hog defense will crumble and have 35+ hung on them. WHY THIS GAME MATTERS If there was such a thing as perfect timing for the 2018 Razorbacks to face Coach O’s Tigers, the time is now. Kickoff is at 6:30pm in Fayetteville, the first home night game in Fayetteville this season. The Tigers are downtrodden after a poor showing last Saturday, and this is the Razorbacks' Super Bowl. It is highly unlikely that we do not see the Razorbacks best effort. The Tigers will either experience a hangover from the Bama beatdown, or exorcize last Saturday’s demons on the lowly Razorbacks. You are hard pressed to see Coach O’s Tigers unprepared and unmotivated for a game. He will likely have them fired up and ready to play. On the other side, Chad Morris desperately wants to show Hog Nation that his system will work. The Hogs have made progress throughout the season with improved OL play, cleaning up Special Teams, TE and RB player solidification, and slightly improved offensive execution by QB Ty Storey. Expect the Hogs to have their best performance of the year, as the Hogs see LSU as their most true rival in the SEC and the Hogs typically play LSU close for the Battle of the Boot. Whoever wins this game will depend on a mixture of Razorback intensity, execution, discipline, coupled with average QB play by Burrow and subpar LSU intensity. LSU 35 – Arkansas 27
Vegas odds for Clemson-LSU by Tony Crumpton - Assoc. Editor - 2019-12-29 00:28:35.0 No. 3 Clemson and No. 1 LSU will face off in the National Championship game on January 13 in New Orleans. After LSU dropped 63 in the semifinal, Vegas set the over/under of this game at 70, with an implied point total of 38.5-32. The number dropped slightly to 68 as of Sunday evening. LSU has been held under 38 points three times (under 35 just once); Clemson failed to reach 32 points three times (including semifinal game). LSU vs Clemson by the The action out in Vegas has been heavy and completely one-sided ahead of Monday’s title game between LSU and Clemson. The line, which opened back on Dec. 28 with LSU as a 3.5-point favorite, has LSU closed as a -4 or -4.5 betting favorite over, depending on your sportsbook, for the national championship game. The over/under dropped from 69.5 to 66 and even 65.5 at some shops over the last few days. We're tracking the best prices for Clemson vs. LSU odds so you can get the best of the number regardless of what you're betting on. Here's what the bookmakers are telling us with the early Clemson-LSU odds. Same story with the over-under totals, which started out at a flat 69 and have now moved up a half-notch to 69.5. The 2020 College Football Championship Game featuring the Clemson Tigers and the LSU Tigers is January 13th. Check out our picks, odds, betting preview and more. LSU vs. Clemson spread, odds, line: Predictions, picks and props for national championship 2020 There's nothing left to do but #TrustTheProcess one last time for the 2019-20 college football season The line and over/under for the College Football Playoff title game have ticked down at Las Vegas sportsbooks ahead of Monday’s heavily anticipated clash. Clemson crushes LSU in national LSU vs. Clemson Odds: Opening Line, Over/Under Total for 2020 CFP National Championship revealed. Sun Dec 29, 2019 at 11:41am ET Las Vegas oddsmakers are leaning towards LSU. Clemson vs LSU CFP National Championship Game Info. 2020 College Football Playoff
Clemson vs LSU 2020 National Championship Game Picks and Predictions
Scott and Tony from Doc's Sports break it down with LSU vs Clemson college football picks, tips and predi... Skip navigation ... New Orleans, LA. Odds/Point Spread: LSU -5.5. Total/Over-Under: 69 ... Clemson takes a double digit lead in the second quarter, but after that it is all LSU, as Joe Burrow pours it on with five touchdown passes and a score on th... 💖 Please Visit: https://www.facebook.com/Scathc/💖 Please Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPlh4f8CZWGzhS4Vx2KTCyQ?sub_confirmation=1 Perhaps th... LSU vs Clemson College Football Pick, Tips and Prediction 1/13/20 National Championship Betting - Duration: 6:42. Doc's Sports Picks, Tips and Predictions 8,558 views 6:42
